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The 2026 ocean freight outlook: rates, capacity, and what to plan for

Where rates are heading, the new mega-vessels reshaping capacity, the Red Sea reroute now in its 24th month, and what shippers should lock in versus leave on spot.

Last updated 6/2/2026

The 2026 ocean freight outlook: rates, capacity, and what to plan for

If you ship ocean freight, the 2026 market looks very different from 2024. Here is what changed, what to expect through year-end, and how to plan your contract season.

Where rates are now (June 2026)

  • Asia → US West Coast (40' FEU): $2,400-$3,100. Up 18% from January, down 32% from the 2024 peak.
  • Asia → US East Coast (40' FEU): $3,600-$4,400. Up 25% from January due to Red Sea reroutes.
  • Asia → Europe (40' FEU): $4,800-$5,900. Still elevated from the Red Sea situation.
  • Trans-Atlantic (40' FEU): $1,900-$2,400. Stable.

These are spot rates. BCO (Beneficial Cargo Owner) contracts signed in May 2026 came in 8-15% below spot on most lanes — reasonable but not the bargain contract season some shippers expected.

What's driving rates

1. The Red Sea is still closed (for big carriers)

Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE are still routing around the Cape of Good Hope on Asia-Europe and Asia-East Coast services. Adds ~10 days and 30-40% to fuel costs. This is the single biggest factor keeping rates elevated and is unlikely to resolve in 2026.

2. Vessel capacity grew faster than demand

The orderbook from 2021-2022 is being delivered. Net new capacity in 2026 is +9% year-over-year. Demand growth: ~3%. Pure supply-demand logic says rates should fall further. They haven't because of #1 and #3.

3. Slow-steaming is back

Carriers are intentionally running ships at 14-16 knots instead of 22-24 to cut fuel costs and absorb capacity. Effectively reduces deliverable TEU by ~12% per voyage. Makes the orderbook absorb less of a price-shock.

What to expect through year-end 2026

  • Jul-Sep peak season: GRIs of $300-$600 per FEU likely on Asia-US trans-Pacific. Asia-Europe rates probably stable (already elevated).
  • Oct-Dec: soft season begins. Rates likely to ease 5-15% on most lanes.
  • Q1 2027: depends on Red Sea, new tariff regimes, and Chinese New Year early-March 2027 (containers ship Jan-Feb in volume to beat the holiday).

What to do about it

If you ship 200+ TEU/year

Sign a 12-month BCO contract with at least two carriers (one east-coast carrier, one west-coast). Lock in a minimum quantity commitment (MQC) at 80% of last year's volume so you can flex up without renegotiating. Don't over-commit — soft markets reward spot-buyers.

If you ship under 200 TEU/year

Use an NVOCC freight forwarder. They aggregate volume from many small shippers and pass discounts you couldn't get directly. Plan for spot rates throughout the year.

If you ship under 20 TEU/year

Use LCL (less-than-container-load). Costs per cbm: $50-$120 from Asia. Slower transit but you only pay for the space you use.

Don't forget the new tariff regime

The US Trade Representative's 2026 review of Section 301 tariffs raised duties on a long list of Chinese-origin goods:

  • EVs and EV batteries: now 100% (up from 25%)
  • Semiconductors: now 50% (up from 25%)
  • Solar cells: now 50% (up from 25%)
  • Steel and aluminum: now 25% (up from existing 7.5-25%)
  • Medical PPE: phased in at 25% by end-2026

If any of these touch your supply chain, the duty cost change probably dwarfs the ocean freight rate change. Calculate your landed cost on every SKU before peak season.

How Atlas helps

We quote ocean freight against Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, ZIM, ONE, and Hapag-Lloyd in one call. Get a full rate comparison, lock in your contract, and track containers via our public tracker. Request a quote.

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